ࡱ> q` DbjbjqPqP bG::44$$$$$$$$$%h1(,$i!"!!,$$!!!!:$!!$!!!  0%妿@!^!Z#$0$!(!"(!!p(:#  v!-,Y,$,$! $!!!!  Alan Greenspan warns of UK house prices drop By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor The Telegragh Last Updated: 1:08am BST18/09/2007 Britain's housing market is heading for a painful correction, according to the world's most renowned economist and central banker.  HYPERLINK "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=LJJKH2TEEJC2RQFIQMGSFGGAVCBQWIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/17/ccview117.xml" Comment: More rock star than feared Fed sage  HYPERLINK "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=ODGSW3RPQFDOJQFIQMGCFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/17/cngreen117.xml" Greenspan warns dollar to fall victim to current account deficit  HYPERLINK "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=ODGSW3RPQFDOJQFIQMGCFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=%2Fmoney/exclusions/hubpages/greenspan/greenspan.xml" In depth: Alan Greenspan Alan Greenspan, the former head of America's central bank, the Federal Reserve, issues the prediction in an exclusive interview with The Daily Telegraph today.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/graphics/2007/09/17/GREENSPAN.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET Alan Greenspan warned recent increases in house prices were unsustainableHe warns of "difficulties" ahead for UK home owners, as rising interest rates bring house price growth to a shuddering halt. The warning comes only days after the Bank of England was forced to bail out the mortgage lender Northern Rock, amid the escalating credit crunch in the City and markets around the world. Mr Greenspan, the central banker for a number of United States presidents from Ronald Reagan to George W Bush, also says that Britain's economy is even more exposed to the financial turmoil than that of the US. In a wide-ranging interview he also warns that: Inflation will pick up dramatically over the coming years, as much as doubling from its recent lows. Interest rates may have to hit double figures in the coming years to keep price rises at their current low levels. Britain must overhaul its flagging education system or risk being left behind by other vibrant economies around the world. However, Mr Greenspan provides some reassurance about Britain's prospects in the coming decades, saying it will be one of the best-performing Western economies, thanks to the Thatcherite reforms of the 1980s and the strength of the City. advertisement The UK "may be one of the most competitive economies in the world", he adds. However, it is Mr Greenspan's warning on housing and interest rates that will cause most consternation.  HYPERLINK "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=ODGSW3RPQFDOJQFIQMGCFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/17/cngrspan217.xml" Northern Rock crisis takes toll on confidence  HYPERLINK "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=ODGSW3RPQFDOJQFIQMGCFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/09/17/cngrspan317.xml" Iraq war was about oil, says Greenspan The 81-year-old economist, an adviser to Gordon Brown, said that recent increases in house prices - particularly those in London and the South East - were unsustainable. "There are going to be some difficulties," he says. "Can [the boom] last No. You're already beginning to see the mortgage rates are moving; a lot of the two-year fixes are beginning to unwind, and the teaser rates are going," he adds, referring to mortgages where rates jump after an introductory period. He says that banks are already being forced to write off billions of pounds of debt. "It's going to turn, it's got to turn," he says. Mr Greenspan also warns that Britain is more vulnerable to the effects of the credit crunch than the US. "Britain is more exposed than we are - in the sense that you have a good deal more adjustable-rate mortgages," he says, referring to the standard variable rate loans that many households have chosen over fixed-rate deals. The Bank of England has raised interest rates five times in the past year to their current 5.75 per cent. However, the instability in money markets has meant that the effective rate paid by millions of families - the so-called standard variable rate - has actually risen to heights it last hit when the Bank rate was a full percentage point higher at 6.75 per cent. "In Britain the housing [market] hasn't turned yet, and the consumer households are more subject to interest rate changes than in the United States," he adds. His warning comes with the UK banking system in a state of crisis. Worried customers have withdrawn 2bn from their accounts with Northern Rock since Friday, when it emerged that the high street bank has had to arrange an emergency loan from the Bank of England to prevent it from collapsing. There are also growing signs that after a decade of almost uninterrupted growth the housing market is slowing dramatically. Rightmove and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors have reported a sudden dive in prices. Although he expects the housing market to take a turn for the worse, Mr Greenspan says the UK economy is well placed to deal with shocks, because the reforms following the miners' strikes in the 1980s made it a more flexible place to do business. "You [in the UK] haven't even had a taint of a recession for an extremely long period of time and a goodly part of that is the flexibility that came out of the crush between Scargill and Thatcher," he says. "That was the defining moment, and to their credit Blair and Brown did not endeavour to unwind it. They recognised that there was something fundamentally good for British labour in having a flexible economy. "It's like tough love, as we call it. It's unhappy-making, but in the end it works." Greenspan signs up to UK Treasury BBC Report INCLUDEPICTURE "http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41281000/jpg/_41281134_greenspan203_ap.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET  Mr Greenspan will advise the UK on global economic change Former US central bank chief Alan Greenspan has agreed to become an honorary adviser to the UK Treasury. The announcement by Chancellor Gordon Brown came less than seven hours after Mr Greenspan's near 19-year tenure as Federal Reserve chairman ended. Mr Brown said his new adviser would help the Treasury in the UK develop its thinking in areas relating to global economic change. Mr Greenspan has also launched a new consulting firm, Greenspan Associates. 'Good news' His role at the Treasury will apparently involve regular meetings and exchanges of papers - but no pay cheque. Mr Brown described the appointment as "good news for us".  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET   INCLUDEPICTURE "http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET There are those who argue that his legacy may not be as golden as the praise being heaped on him  Sir Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics  -.P^_      t v z |  òס׎{bNb:b{bNb:'hZ<hZ<5B* CJOJQJ\ph3'hZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJ\ph0jhZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJU\ph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph!hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJphfff!hZ<5B*CJOJQJ\phfff'hZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJ\phfff%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph)hZ<hZ<B*CJ'KH$OJQJaJ'ph-_ z  M\$$& #$/-Ifa$gdZ<$& #$/-IfgdZ< dd[$\$gdZ<gdZ< dd@&[$\$gdZ< D   $ & 12JKMX[\]^hԆnncMc+hZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJ\aJphhZ<hZ<CJaJ.jhZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJUaJph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph'hZ<hZ<5B* CJOJQJ\ph3'hZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJ\ph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph0jhZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJU\ph\]^.TkdME$$If40> 6 -6-34a$$& #$/-Ifa$gdZ<$& #$/-IfgdZ<TkdD$$If40> 6 -6-34aTFhtsN=(kM+ "!!"###gdZ< dd[$\$gdZ<hnpжvcJ6J"J'hZ<hZ<5B* CJOJQJ\ph3'hZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJ\ph0jhZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJU\ph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph2jKhZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJU^JaJph2jHhZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJU^JaJph2jEhZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJU^JaJph)hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJ^JaJph ptvz|IJpqs##H#I#J###셁nfQAQhB*CJOJQJaJph(jhB*CJOJQJUaJphhCJaJ%h5B*CJOJQJ\aJphh%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph'hZ<hZ<5B* CJOJQJ\ph3'hZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJ\ph0jhZ<hZ<5B*CJOJQJU\ph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph%hZ<hZ<B*CJOJQJaJph#H#I####i$$%%%ic]]]]$If$IfAkd$IfK$L$  6 - 6-34a $IfgdK$ $Ifgd6kdP$$If$$634a $Ifgd ######g$%%&&&&&&&&='>'?'@'''ƶƛֆqaqLq9a%h5B*CJOJQJ\aJph(jihB*CJOJQJUaJphhB*CJOJQJaJph(jhB*CJOJQJUaJph(jhB*CJOJQJUaJph%h5B*CJOJQJ\aJphhCJaJhB*CJOJQJaJphfffhB*CJOJQJaJph(jhB*CJOJQJUaJph(jPhB*CJOJQJUaJph%J&&&''j@@@AtAABnokd'$IfK$L$0K1   6 -0 6-34ap $IfgdK$ $Ifgd$IfK$$If ''''''@f@g@h@i@j@k@@@@@@@B(BCCDîìîîîÅubu^h%h5B*CJOJQJ\aJphhB*CJOJQJaJphhCJaJh0JOJQJ(jhB*CJOJQJUaJphU(jhB*CJOJQJUaJphhB*CJOJQJaJph"hB*CJOJQJaJphy(3jhB*CJOJQJUaJmHnHphuINCLUDEPICTURE "http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/inline_dashed_line.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET   HYPERLINK "http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4562488.stm" Deficits may harm Greenspan legacy "I am delighted that Dr Greenspan has agreed to be honorary adviser," he said. "His advice on issues relating to global economic change will be much appreciated." Mr Greenspan was given an honorary knighthood in 2002. He has previously described Mr Brown as being "without peer amongst the world's economic policymakers". Event-filled tenure On Tuesday Mr Greenspan presided over his last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates for the 14th time in a row. During his time at the helm Mr Greenspan guided the US responses to the stock market crash of 1987, the emerging market crisis of the 1990s, the dotcom bubble of 2000 and the 9/11 attacks. Mr Brown has called him "the world's greatest economic leader of our generation". He will be the only honorary adviser at the Treasury. B*BBsCCCCCCD\kdۤ$$IfF| $`$6    34a$If$If ,1h. 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